By Bill McMaken, Real Estate Professional | Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Drysdale Properties
If you’ve looked at mortgage rates lately and felt like shutting the laptop, you’re not alone. Rates hit their highest level in about eight months this month, and many buyers are asking the same thing: “Should I just wait for rates to come back down?”
Before you decide, let’s look at what rates are doing now, where they’ve been over the past 35 years, and what the experts expect next. The history puts today’s rates in a very different light.
Where Rates Are Right Now
According to Freddie Mac’s weekly survey, the average 30-year fixed rate was 6.95% as of September 17, 2026, up from 6.26% a year ago. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.26%. Day-to-day lender pricing has already moved just past 7% this week.
The main reasons:
- The Federal Reserve raised rates a quarter point this month and signaled more hikes may follow, a big change from the rate cuts many people expected earlier in the year.
- The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5% for the first time since 2007. Mortgage rates tend to follow that yield closely.
- Inflation is sticking around. It’s high in services especially, and a strong job market means the economy isn’t cooling enough to bring rates down.
A Look Back: 35 Years of Mortgage Rates
This part surprises most first-time buyers. Here are the annual averages for a 30-year fixed mortgage (Freddie Mac):
| Year | Rate | Year | Rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 10.13% | 2004 | 5.84% | |
| 1991 | 9.25% | 2005 | 5.87% | |
| 1992 | 8.39% | 2006 | 6.41% | |
| 1993 | 7.31% | 2007 | 6.34% | |
| 1994 | 8.38% | 2008 | 6.03% | |
| 1995 | 7.93% | 2009 | 5.04% | |
| 1996 | 7.81% | 2010 | 4.69% | |
| 1997 | 7.60% | 2011 | 4.45% | |
| 1998 | 6.94% | 2012 | 3.66% | |
| 1999 | 7.44% | 2013 | 3.98% | |
| 2000 | 8.05% | 2014 | 4.17% | |
| 2001 | 6.97% | 2015 | 3.85% | |
| 2002 | 6.54% | 2016 | 3.65% | |
| 2003 | 5.83% |
Look at the 1990s. A rate around 7–8% was completely normal for a full decade, and 10% wasn’t unusual. If your parents bought in 1981, they may have paid over 16%. (Ask them about it at Thanksgiving. They’ll have stories.)
Rates between 6% and 7% were common again in the mid-2000s. Sub-4% rates didn’t really show up until the 2010s, after the 2008 financial crisis, when the Federal Reserve took extraordinary steps to support the economy. Then in 2020–2021, pandemic-era policy drove rates below 3%, the lowest in recorded history.
The Low-Rate Years Were the Exception
The roughly 3% rates many of us got used to weren’t normal. They came from two once-in-a-generation emergencies: a global financial crisis and a global pandemic. In both cases, the Fed pushed rates down on purpose to keep the economy going.
Over the full history of Freddie Mac’s survey, which goes back to 1971, the long-term average 30-year rate is around 7.7%. So today’s rates near 7% aren’t a crisis. They’re close to the historical average.
Waiting for 3% rates to come back is a bit like waiting for gas to hit $1.50 a gallon again. It’s a nice memory, but it’s not a plan.
What the Experts Expect Next
The major forecasters updated their outlooks this week, and they largely agree:
- Fannie Mae expects the 30-year rate to be around 6.8% at the end of 2026 and about 6.7% through 2027.
- The Mortgage Bankers Association forecasts 6.8% through the end of 2026 and into mid-2027.
- The broader view among industry analysts is that rates will stay between 6% and 7% for the foreseeable future. Some think they could stay even higher, since actual rates are already above 7%.
Nobody expects a return to 3%, and a meaningful drop in the near term looks unlikely.
What This Means for Buyers
Waiting isn’t necessarily a bad plan, but it’s worth being clear about what you’re waiting for. Some things to consider:
- You can refinance later, but you can’t renegotiate the price. If rates fall, you can refinance into a lower payment. If home prices rise while you wait, that money is gone for good.
- Higher rates keep some buyers on the sidelines. Less competition can mean more negotiating room, more seller concessions, and fewer bidding wars. That’s a real advantage.
- Buy based on the payment you can afford now. If the monthly payment works at today’s rate, a future drop is a bonus, not something your budget depends on.
- Ask about ways to lower your rate. Seller-paid buydowns, adjustable-rate options, and first-time buyer programs can all reduce your payment. A good lender can walk you through what fits your situation.
Here in Northern Nevada, from Northwest Reno to Midtown to Mayberry-Highland Park, buyers who understand the rate picture and plan around it are the ones getting good deals right now.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are mortgage rates going to go down soon?
Most major forecasters don’t expect a big drop in the near term. Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association both project rates around 6.7–6.8% through 2027. Rates can move quickly with inflation reports and economic news, though, so it’s worth watching.
What is a “normal” mortgage rate?
Historically, the average 30-year fixed rate since 1971 has been around 7.7%. Rates in the 6–8% range were standard through most of the 1990s and 2000s.
Why were rates so low in 2020 and 2021?
The Federal Reserve cut rates and bought large amounts of mortgage-backed securities to support the economy during the pandemic. That pushed rates below 3%, which was an emergency response and not a normal market condition.
Should I wait to buy until rates drop?
That depends on your situation. Keep in mind that when rates fall, more buyers come back into the market, which can push prices up and bring back bidding wars. Many buyers choose to buy now and refinance later if rates improve.
What’s the difference between the Fed’s rate and my mortgage rate?
The Fed sets a short-term rate that banks charge each other. Mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury yield more closely, which reflects the market’s expectations for inflation and the economy. They’re related, but they don’t move one-for-one.
How can I lower my mortgage rate?
Options include improving your credit score, making a larger down payment, buying discount points, negotiating a seller-paid rate buydown, or looking into an adjustable-rate mortgage. A lender can help you compare these.
Is it still a good time to be a first-time buyer?
It can be. Less competition, more willing sellers, and first-time buyer assistance programs can work in your favor. The key is to buy a home you can comfortably afford at today’s rate.
Let’s Talk Through Your Options
The rate environment can feel confusing, but it doesn’t have to stop you. If you’d like to talk about what today’s market means for your plans, whether you’re buying your first home or your next one, I’m happy to help. No pressure, just good information.
Bill McMaken
Real Estate Professional | RED#205069
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Drysdale Properties
📞 (775) 221-5782
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Rate data are from Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Forecasts are from Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association as of September 2026. Rates change often. This post is for general information and is not financial or lending advice, so please talk with a licensed mortgage professional about your specific situation.
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